BY_ ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER
FROM_ FOREIGN POLICY
MAY 31 2012
But if we don't
act quickly, it will be.
Nothing to be
done. It's impossible. Stalemate at the United Nations. These are the mantras
that continue to accompany ever more violent and wrenching pictures of
massacres and daily killings in Syria. The country has been "sliding
toward civil war" for months now without any meaningful change in the
international response. The Russian government originally seems to have
calculated that President Bashar al-Assad could crush the opposition the way
Vladimir Putin crushed the uprising in Chechnya, but that degree of brutality
would have brought international intervention for sure. The "Annan
Plan" is becoming a synonym for hypocrisy and inaction. The Friends of
Syria diplomatic strategy of choking the Syrian economy ever tighter is paying
off in food shortages and rising prices, but has offered no evidence that the
Sunni business class has the will or the means to effect a coup. And the Alawites appear to be closing
ranks; indeed, massacres like last week's slaughter in al-Houla guarantee an
increasingly bloody retribution if and when the tide finally turns.
I say
"if" and not just "when" because Lebanon teaches us that an
even more violent and chaotic version of the present conflict can endure for
years, but with the added dimension of growing radicalization of many
opposition forces and the provision of a new cause and new territory for al
Qaeda-linked or inspired insurgents from Iraq, Yemen, and even Pakistan. These
elements truly are the "foreign terrorists" Assad inveighs against;
their presence and their IED and car-bomb tactics will solidify support for
Assad in Damascus and Aleppo and drive Syria's Alawites ever more deeply into
the arms of Iran. At the same time, trouble spills over into Lebanon as Syrian
government troops chase Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces across the border, a
scenario that could be replicated in Jordan and Turkey. All the while, Syria's
Kurds are freer to unite with their Iraqi cousins, with dreams of an expanded
Kurdish autonomous zone that is a nightmare for the Turkish government. Add
chemical weapons, and the designs of Iran, Israel, Qatar, Russia, and Saudi
Arabia into the mix and long-term destabilization of the region's security and
economy looms.
An alternative
exists, one that grows clearer and nearer every day. Three months ago, I
proposed in the New York Times that the Arab League and Turkey, backed by NATO
members, should provide a limited number of specialized anti-tank and
anti-mortar weapons to Syrian towns willing to declare "no kill
zones" -- call them NKZs -- in their towns, meaning no attacks by the
Syrian army, sectarian shabbiha militias, the FSA, or anyone else. Public
safety, including for peaceful protesters, would be paramount. I suggested the
United States provide communications and intelligence to enable the town
authorities and any members of any military willing to enforce the NKZ to allow
them to track the movements of Syrian government troops. And I suggested that
drones from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United States could fire on
Syrian government tanks approaching NKZs.
This proposal
was widely met with derision, particularly in the security community. But three
months later, the United States has announced that it is providing intelligence
and communication support to the FSA and openly countenancing the provision of
arms by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Near the Jordan-Syria border, the U.S. military
has just finished a massive military exercise with Jordan and 18 other countries.
Ambassador Susan Rice told CNN's Wolf Blitzer Wednesday night that as a last
resort "we," presumably meaning the Friends of Syria, must "look
at options outside the U.N." Robert Baer, who spent more than two decades
as a CIA case officer in the Middle East, said on another CNN program that it
would be possible to use drones to take out tanks in Syria. And the Times of
London came out in support of no-kill zones on its editorial page.
What is still
missing is a plan. It is time to stand neither for the Syrian opposition nor
against the Syrian government but against killing by either side. To tell any
Syrian local officials willing to stand against killing -- whether a Local
Coordinating Committee or simply a municipal government -- that they will receive
weapons and air support against tanks, support that will be withdrawn if
killing begins or continues, by anyone. All citizens of such towns should be
instructed to photograph violence by anyone against anyone and upload it to a
central website maintained by the U.N. or by the Friends of Syria, so that they
become peace monitors.
Legally, the
Friends of Syria can proceed without the U.N. Security Council's approval if
the Arab League is willing to declare a threat to regional peace and security
resulting from the ongoing violence in Syria. Given the current refugee
situation and the clear potential for destabilization of neighboring countries,
the league would be amply justified in doing so. Arab states are also entitled
to ask for assistance from Turkey and any other countries. NATO could make the
same move at Turkey's request, but need not do so for individual NATO members
to assist the Arab League. International lawyers will debate the point, but
Chapter VIII of the U.N. Charter governing regional arrangements arguably
allows such action as long as the Arab League informs the Security Council of
the measures it is taking for the maintenance of international peace and
security.
Baer, the former
CIA officer, also said on CNN that it was quite possible that the international
community would not intervene in Syria until the level of killing reached
Rwandan proportions. That is a horrific message to send both to the Syrian
people and the Syrian government, not to mention similarly brutal governments
around the world. Surely mass murder in the tens of thousands is enough for
action, on both moral and strategic grounds. Many if not most readers will have
objections to the plan proposed here. To them, I say: Either accept the status
quo and recognize how much worse it is likely to get, or propose a plan of your
own.
-/AFP/GettyImages