BY_ DANYA GREENFIELD
FROM_ AL-MONITOR
JUN 1 2012
As I talked
with a group of 30 Yemeni youth leaders recently, the message came across loud
and clear: US drone attacks against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
are short-sighted, ill-fated and create more enemies than they destroy.
While there
was broad ideological and political diversity among the group, the youths
universally agreed on the ineffectiveness of US counterterrorism policy. They
recognize that AQAP is a real and growing threat — in fact, more so to Yemen
than to the United States — but contend that more harm than good is being done
by the unmanned drone strikes that often hit civilians by mistake.
I met the
group through a workshop convened by Chatham House and Resonate! Yemen near the
desert town of Madaba, Jordan two weeks ago as part of an effort to empower
youth leaders and connect them to international policy makers.
A prominent
political activist, a dynamic young woman from Taiz, explained that the tribes
in the targeted areas tend to be pragmatic, building alliances
opportunistically on the basis of shared interest. When a tribe member is
killed by an errant drone strike, this generates enormous hostility toward the
United States and sympathy for AQAP and its anti-American agenda, she said.
Neglected
tribal areas such as Abyan that lack resources and infrastructure are, in her
words, a “fertile nature reserve” for extremists to gain new supporters. Recent
news reports give credence to the idea that US strikes create sympathy for
Ansar Al Sharia, as the Yemen branch of Al Qaeda is known.
Yemenis are
deeply skeptical about American intentions, due to decades of US support for
Ali Abdullah Saleh’s autocratic regime. While it may be tempting to dismiss
these feelings as the typical anti-American sentiment which is pervasive across
the region, in Yemen this animosity, when transformed into action, has a
concrete impact on US security.
Prior to the
American engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan, which brought the war on terror
to their doorstep, most Yemenis were relatively neutral toward to the United
States. However, US actions over the past decade has shifted sentiment and
radicalized a small core. The infamous Christmas 2009 underwear bomber, the
lethal packages bound for Chicago last year and the recently foiled airline bombing
plot were all planned from the hills and valleys of Yemen. What is equally
worrisome is that AQAP is exploiting the impact of US drone attacks both
internally to garner sympathy and attract new recruits and externally to
inspire lone wolves abroad to launch attacks against Western targets.
Given their
recognition of the threat, yet vehement opposition to current US strategy, I
asked this group of Yemeni youth leaders to put themselves in the place of
military planners at the Pentagon and outline what they would do differently.
In a matter of minutes, one participant developed several concrete action
items:
1 Give the
task of fighting AQAP to the regular Yemeni army; equip and train it for this
mandate.
2 Redeploy
elite counterterrorism forces in the south, where the threat is greatest.
3 Halt drone
attacks because they are counterproductive.
4 Remove
former president Saleh’s relatives from military leadership.
5 Address the
poor economic situation in the south.
6 Engage the
tribes and begin a rehabilitation program targeting vulnerable youth in Abyan.
7 Begin a
dialogue with Islamists who tend toward extremism, which Yemen has experience
in doing.
The US is
trying to undertake most of these goals in some fashion, except for halting the
air strikes, yet the perception is that Americans only provide support to the
elite counterterrorism units (in which Saleh’s family members hold leadership
positions) and rain down drone attacks with impunity.
The US
embassy in Sana has recently developed a two-year strategy that focuses on four
main goals:
1 addressing
the humanitarian crisis
2 assisting
with military restructuring
3 supporting
the political transition
4 resuscitating
the economy
These are
exactly the right elements to ensure a stable and prosperous future for Yemen
and to advance US national-security imperatives, but the problem is that most
Yemenis perceive US objectives as singularly focused on fighting extremists and
routing out Ansar Al Sharia.
Part of this
disconnect could be addressed with better outreach and public diplomacy. While
USAID and the Office of Transitional Initiatives (OTI) are investing millions
of dollars in development and good-governance projects throughout the country,
this story does not find itself on the front page or capture the public’s
attention.
American
efforts to combat AQAP should be contextualized in the larger picture of Yemen’s
long-term development and investment in building political, military and
economic institutions that will sustain that future. Instead of highlighting
visits from US counterterrorism officials — an approach that has made John
Brennan the face of US engagement in Yemen — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
and other high-level State Department officials should make regular visits to
affirm our deep and lasting commitment to Yemen’s future and sustainable
development.
My
discussions with these youth leaders reflected an inherent tension that exists
across Yemeni society between criticizing foreign influence and interference
and actively seeking outside help in minimizing the influence of Saleh and his
family and resolving military standoffs.
During
workshop sessions on Yemen’s transition, it was clear they want this to be a
Yemeni-led process, yet turned eagerly to representatives from Western
embassies in Sana’a to gain insight into the national dialogue and military
restructuring required by the Gulf Cooperation Council-sponsored agreement that
paved the way for Saleh’s departure in November 2011.
They may
resent past US support for the Saleh regime and current bombing campaigns, but
are acutely aware of the dangers ahead and how much they need US involvement if
there is to be any hope of success for a democratic transition.
The role
that the United States and other international powers play in this critical
period could have a profound impact on Yemen’s future, as well as setting the
stage for a more positive relationship between the US and the Yemeni people. If
the US insists that the Saleh clan give up their hold on power, and ensures
broad representation in the national dialogue — including youth, women, and
other marginalized populations — it could help restore some confidence in
America and send the message that the US cares not only about destroying
extremists but also building a brighter future for the next generation of
Yemeni youth.
Danya
Greenfield is the deputy director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle
East at the Atlantic Council. She was previously with the Center for
International Private Enterprise (CIPE), where she managed projects in Yemen
and traveled there frequently between 2007-2010.
PHOTO_ REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah Ali Al Mahdi